Issue Statement:

After his initial election in 2015, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau proclaimed that his administration’s focus on international engagement would create a resilient and influential Canadian presence on the world stage.¹ Yet, in light of Canada’s loss in the 2020 United Nations Security Council election, it appears that Trudeau’s original sentiments have gone hollow.

Canada’s geographic location and shared history forces it to hold the United States at the forefront of its foreign policy agenda.² However, to ensure that Canadian values and concerns are embedded within the imperative multilateral decisions that must be made in the coming years, Global Affairs Canada and the Prime Minister must bring Canada out of the American shadow and strengthen its relations with countries outside North America.

Policy Options:

1. Establish a Canada-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement
2. Fully develop and establish the Centre for Peace, Order, and Good Governance to combat democratic regression

Preliminary Information:

Among the rules-based international order, Canada is widely considered as a “middle power.” The significance of this title dates to 1944 when Prime Minister Mackenzie King advocated for the cooperation of middle powers to achieve international influence – something he called ‘middlepowerhood’.³ King’s concept has grown alongside the post-war international order, therefore, defining much of Canada’s post-war multilateralism-driven foreign policy.⁴ For example, in spite of serious domestic issues caused by the pandemic, the Global Affairs Canada 2020 mandate, for better or for worse, prioritized only multilateral actions, namely strengthening international order, developing feminist foreign policy actions, pursuing inclusive trade, and fortifying North American relations. 

That said, the post-war international order was developed under American hegemony, when the Global North had a monopoly on power.⁵ With the rise of the Asian Century and emerging South-South institutions, Canada’s overall influence has waned, and its input has become ignored by the world’s newest Asia-Pacific players. The next decade will be imperative to solving global crises like climate change and democratic regressions. If Canada wants a seat at the table, it must expand its foreign policy agenda past its northern comfort zone and explore negotiations with the Global South. 

Strategic Considerations:

The United States is Canada’s strongest ally economically, militarily, and ideologically, but this relationship has waned in recent years under Donald Trump’s contentious “America First” policies, extensive tariffs, and rejection of multilateralism.⁷ Nevertheless, while the renegotiation of NAFTA has put Canada at a disadvantage, it has also further integrated the North American economies, thereby, making Canada more vulnerable to any hardships that the US endures.⁸ Moving forward with independent deals does not mean ignoring the United States; in fact, when it comes to negotiations in the Asia-Pacific region, factoring in Sino-US relations will be quintessential to ensuring the best net benefits for Canada. 

Finally, the Trudeau administration has dedicated a significant effort to building a prosperous trade and investment network with the Chinese government.⁹ In fact, China is Canada’s “second-largest national two-way trade partner.”¹⁰ However, this relationship took a consequential hit after Canada arrested Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou under an American extradition warrant and China, in turn, jailed Canadians Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor in 2018.¹¹ China’s use of hostage diplomacy has affected both the federal government’s approach to Canada-China relations and the Canadian public opinion. In a poll conducted by the Angus Reid Institute, “79% of Canadians believe that human rights and rule of law should prevail over any Chinese trade/investment opportunities.”¹² With both the UN Security Council and federal elections coming up, policymakers must prioritize foreign policy strategies that do not reward China’s behaviour while also opening themselves up to Global South markets that would benefit Canadians.

Potential Policy Analysis:

1. Lead the establishment of a Canada-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement

Since 2016, Canada’s economic ministers have been exploring the possibility of a free trade agreement with the ten members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) – the world’s sixth largest economy.¹³ The Canada-ASEAN relationship has been growing for decades now. Since 2004, trade has been growing at an annual average rate of 5.7% ,and the two economies held a WTO trade complementarity index of positive 59.9 in 2016.¹⁴ Furthermore, Canada’s foreign direct investment into the ASEAN members had been a substantial USD8.9 billion in sectors like manufacturing, information, communications, and sustainable technologies in 2016.¹⁵ Nevertheless, no further action has been taken to establish a free trade agreement.

In 2016, a joint feasibility study was conducted to determine whether a trade agreement consisting of “goods liberalization, reduction of NTMs, and improvements to trade facilitation” would be worthwhile.¹⁶ The study concluded that such an agreement was feasible as both economies would benefit. Specifically, Canada’s GDP would increase by USD5.1 billion and exports to ASEAN countries would increase by another USD3.1 billion.¹⁷ Furthermore, Canada is already in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), a free trade agreement with four of the ASEAN member states: Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam. Therefore, an agreement of this nature would allow Canada not only to strengthen its existing relationships in Southeast Asia but also expand its presence outside of China and into emerging, untapped markets.¹⁸

Finally, Global Affairs Canada highlighted that previous bilateral and multilateral agreements among these groups did not negotiate areas like labour and environmental regulations, gender parity, and anti-corruption – all key facets of Canada’s foreign policy and overall economic recovery strategies.¹⁹ Should Canada take the lead on this initiative, this expansive agreement would fulfill the national interests that are vital to Canada’s inclusive recovery, while also promoting Canadian values across the globe. Furthermore, by opening discussions on climate change and corruption, Canada would be putting itself in a position to negotiate future coalitions on other key global issues within the region. 

2. Fully develop and establish the Centre for Peace, Order, and Good Governance

In his first mandate to Minister of Foreign Affairs, François-Phillippe Champagne, Justin Trudeau introduced the idea of a Center for Peace, Order, and Good Government (CCPOGG), a multilateral institution supporting global democracies and conflict mitigation.²⁰ At the time of his election, core democracies were already regressing globally, minor civil wars were breaking out across the Middle East, and political disinformation was festering on social media.²¹ Six years later, these issues have been further exacerbated by the pandemic and will continue to disproportionately scar marginalized populations around the world should countries remain idle. 

Prior to Canada’s rejection from the UN Security Council in the summer of 2020, a petition circulated around the country protesting Canada’s seat.²² The petition collected 150 signatures from top officials in government, the media, and various STEM fields, all of whom strived to expose Canada’s contradictory approach to foreign policy in focus areas like the environment or Indigenous reconciliation.²³ Building a Canadian-based multilateral institution goes against the petition’s claim and opens the door for further concrete action by the Canadian government and other partners around the world who participate. 

CCPOGG has been in the works for six years without much further development. As Canada looks for ways to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic socially, economically, and politically, this centre could provide the necessary alignment for countries who have lost their way through these unprecedented circumstances. There is no denying that the construction of such an institution would be extremely costly in terms of time, money, and manpower. However, since President Joe Biden’s administration has not been shy about its goal to reignite democracy both domestically and around the world, perhaps Canada could strike a bilateral partnership to ensure that this idea comes to fruition.

Final Recommendations:

Upon reviewing the options available, Global Affairs Canada would be advised to invest in both trade and value promotion through the establishment of a Canada-ASEAN free trade agreement. Not only does this feasible and beneficial trade agreement open up Canada to six new emerging markets, but it also circumvents public anxieties about Canada-China relations and provides a platform for Canada to share its values and interests with the Global South. While the Centre for Peace, Order, and Good Governance will be a vital multilateral institution, it will naturally take a significant temporal and monetary commitment to see it through with little immediate return. A Canada-ASEAN free trade agreement offers a better immediate option for Canadians. 

1. Colin Robertson, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau: A Foreign Policy Assessment 2015-2019, [Calgary, AB]: Canadian Global Affairs Institute, 2, January 2020, https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/cdfai/pages/4347/attachments/original/1578949270/Prime_Minister_Justin_Trudeau_A_Foreign_Policy_Assessment_2015-2019.pdf?1578949270.
2. Randolph Mank. Does Canada Need a Foreign Policy Review? [Calgary, AB]: Canadian Global Affairs Institute, 6, January 2019, https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/cdfai/pages/4108/attachments/original/1547085093/Does_Canada_Need_a_Foreign_Policy_Review.pdf?1547085093.
3. Dong-min Shin, “A Critical Review of the Concept of Middle Power,” E-International Relations, last modified December 4, 2015, https://www.e-ir.info/2015/12/04/a-critical-review-of-the-concept-of-middle-power/.
4. Shin, “A Critical Review of the Concept of Middle Power.”
5. Ian Brodie, "After America, Canada’s Moment?” Canada Defence and Foreign Affairs Institute, last modified February 2015, https://www.cgai.ca/after_america_canadas_moment.
6. Brodie, “After America, Canada’s Moment?”
7. Peter J. Meyer and Ian F. Fergusson, Canada-U.S. Relations, [Washington, D.C.]: Congressional Research Service, February 10, 2021, https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/96-397.pdf.
8. Meyer and Fergusson, Canada-U.S. Relations.
9. Lynette H. Ong, “Navigating Canada-China Relations in a Turbulent Era,” Public Policy Forum, last modified October 7, 2020, https://ppforum.ca/publications/navigating-canada-china-relations/.
10. Canadian Agri-Food Trade Alliance, “Canada and China,” CAFTA, last modified December 26, 2021, http://cafta.org/trade-agreements/canada-china-trade/.
11. Ong, “Navigating Canada-China Relations in a Turbulent Era.”
12. David Korzinski, "Ahead of Trial, Three-Quarters Say Canada-China Relationship Will Not Be Repaired Until Michaels’ Release,” Angus Reid Institute, last modified March 15, 2021, https://angusreid.org/china-meng-kovrig-spavor-trial/.
13. Global Affairs Canada, “Joint Feasibility Study on a Potential Canada-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement,” Government of Canada, last modified March 4, 2021, https://www.international.gc.ca/trade-commerce/trade-agreements-accords-commerciaux/agr-acc/asean-anase/joint_feasibility-faisabilite_conjointe.aspx?lang=eng.
14. Global Affairs Canada, “Joint Feasibility Study on a Potential Canada-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement.”
15. Global Affairs Canada, “Joint Feasibility Study on a Potential Canada-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement.”
16. Global Affairs Canada, “Joint Feasibility Study on a Potential Canada-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement.”
17. Global Affairs Canada, “Joint Feasibility Study on a Potential Canada-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement.”
18. Global Affairs Canada, “Joint Feasibility Study on a Potential Canada-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement.”
19. Global Affairs Canada, “Joint Feasibility Study on a Potential Canada-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement.”
20. Sujit Choudhry, "The Peace, Order, and Good Government Centre: An Exciting Opportunity for Canada,” Canadian International Council 68, no. 1 (2020): 3, https://3mea0n49d5363860yn4ri4go-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Behind-the-Headlines_Choudhry_compressed-2.pdf.
21. Choudhry, "The Peace, Order, and Good Government Centre: An Exciting Opportunity for Canada,” 3-4.
22. Jean-Francois Thibault, “Canada’s Efforts to Get on the UN Security Council Will Likely End in Failure," The Conversation, last modified June 1, 2020, https://theconversation.com/canadas-efforts-to-get-on-the-un-security-council-will-likely-end-in-failure-139242.
23. Thibault, “Canada’s Efforts to Get on the UN Security Council Will Likely End in Failure.”